Trade: Galway-West By-Election Winner?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A by-election for a seat from the Galway West constituency in the Dáil Éireann, the lower house of the Irish parliament, is expected to take place sometime in 2026 to fill the vacancy left by the election of Catherine Connoly as President of Ireland. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the by-election for this Galway West seat in the Irish Dáil Éireann. If voting does not take place in this election or the election results are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $50K
- Total Volume
- $43K
- 24h Volume
- $4K
- Open Interest
- $5K
Market outcomes
| Helen Ogbu | 6% YES | 94% NO |
| Noel Thomas | 46% YES | 54% NO |
| Person H | — | |
| Person M | — | |
| Míde Nic Fhionnlaoich | 11% YES | 89% NO |
| Mike Cubbard | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person D | — | |
Market context
Catherine Connolly's election as President of Ireland in 2025 triggered a vacancy in the Galway West Dáil seat, necessitating a by-election expected in 2026. The market currently prices the YES outcome—that a specific candidate (unnamed in the market structure) will win—at 5% implied probability, reflecting substantial uncertainty about which candidate the market is tracking or whether that candidate will ultimately prevail. The settlement window closes 31 March 2027, allowing roughly twelve months from the anticipated by-election date for results to be confirmed.
Galway West has historically been a competitive three-way contest between Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, and Sinn Féin, with independent and Green candidates occasionally competitive. Connolly herself won as an independent in 2020 with strong local support. By-elections in Irish constituencies typically see lower turnout and can produce unpredictable outcomes; the 2022 Offaly by-election saw Fianna Fáil retain the seat despite national polling headwinds, whilst the 2023 Kildare North by-election resulted in a Sinn Féin gain. The 5% probability on Polymarket's order book suggests the tracked candidate faces long odds relative to better-positioned rivals, though the market's thin liquidity may not fully reflect late-breaking candidate announcements or campaign momentum shifts.
Key catalysts include formal candidate declarations (typically weeks before polling), any major local or national political developments affecting party fortunes, and the actual election date announcement by the Ceann Comhairle. Traders should monitor Irish media coverage of Galway West political positioning and national polling trends affecting the three main parties' by-election prospects.
Wikipedia Context
-
2026 Galway West by-electionA Dáil by-election is due to be held in the constituency of Galway West in Ireland on 22 May 2026, to fill the vacancy in the 34th Dáil left by the election of independent Teachta Dála (TD) Catherine Connolly as president of Ireland. Under Article 12.6.2° of the Constitution of Ireland, a member of either House of the Oireachtas who is elected as president i
-
1975 Galway West by-election
A Dáil by-election was held in the constituency of Galway West in Ireland on Tuesday, 4 March 1975, to fill a vacancy in the 20th Dáil. It followed the death of Fianna Fáil Teachta Dála (TD) Johnny Geoghegan on 5 January 1975.
-
List of Dáil by-elections
By-elections to Dáil Éireann, the house of representatives of the Oireachtas, occur to fill vacant seats which can be caused by the death, resignation, disqualification or expulsion of a member of the Dáil, known as a Teachta Dála (TD).
-
1982 Galway East by-electionA Dáil by-election was held in the constituency of Galway East in Ireland on Tuesday, 20 July 1982, to fill a vacancy in the 23rd Dáil. It followed the death of Fianna Fáil Teachta Dála (TD) Johnny Callanan on 15 June 1982.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Galway-West By-Election Winner?" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$43K in lifetime turnover and $50K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $4K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 March 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Galway-West By-Election Winner?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Related prediction markets
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: