Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Republican Party | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| Democratic Party | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| E | — | |
California's 28th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 12% probability for a Republican victory, reflecting the district's Democratic lean. CA-28 encompasses parts of Los Angeles County and has voted Democratic in recent cycles, though the specific boundaries may shift following redistricting adjustments that take effect for the 2022–2032 cycle.
Historical performance provides context for interpreting this probability. The district has favoured Democratic candidates in presidential elections and House races over the past decade, with Joe Biden securing approximately 60% of the vote in 2020. Comparable suburban Los Angeles districts have occasionally swung Republican during midterm cycles when national conditions favour the opposition party, though such reversals typically require significant headwinds against the incumbent party. The 12% implied probability reflects both the district's structural Democratic advantage and the possibility of a Republican wave in 2026.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and primary outcomes, as the field composition will shape general election dynamics. National economic conditions and approval ratings heading into 2026 will influence whether Republicans can generate sufficient momentum to compete in Democratic-leaning districts. Redistricting details, should any legal challenges alter CA-28's boundaries before candidate filing deadlines, could materially affect the race's competitiveness. Local campaign spending and endorsement patterns will provide signals about candidate viability as the election approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CA-28 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$89K in lifetime turnover and $34K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $14K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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