Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Democratic Party | 84% YES | 17% NO |
| A | — | |
| C | — | |
| Republican Party | 16% YES | 84% NO |
| Other | — | |
| B | — | |
| D | — | |
| E | — | |
Arizona's 4th congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The current order book on Polymarket implies an 84% probability that the winning candidate will be affiliated with the Democratic Party, with Republican affiliation priced at 16%. This probability reflects expectations about the district's partisan lean and candidate quality heading into the cycle.
AZ-04 has shifted considerably in recent election cycles. The district voted for Joe Biden by approximately 5 percentage points in 2020, a significant swing from its Republican lean in prior decades. In 2022, Democrat Greg Stanton won the seat with 52% of the vote against Republican David Schweikert, establishing a Democratic hold on the seat. Historical precedent suggests that districts trending Democratic whilst holding an incumbent advantage tend to remain in Democratic hands during midterms, particularly when the sitting president's party faces typical midterm headwinds.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements and primary contests in both parties, expected to crystallise through 2025 and early 2026. Stanton has not yet confirmed whether he will seek re-election, making his decision a critical catalyst. Redistricting outcomes and any demographic shifts within the district boundaries could also influence the baseline. National economic conditions and approval ratings closer to November 2026 will shape the broader midterm environment, though district-specific factors—including candidate recruitment and local fundraising—will ultimately determine whether the current 84% Democratic probability holds.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "AZ-04 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$13K in lifetime turnover and $16K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $114 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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