Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| D | — | |
| Other | — | |
| A | — | |
| B | — | |
| E | — | |
| Republican Party | 65% YES | 35% NO |
| Democratic Party | 31% YES | 70% NO |
| C | — | |
Arizona's 2nd congressional district will elect a representative to the U.S. House in the 2026 midterm elections on 4 November. The seat is currently held by Republican Eli Crane, who won the district in 2022 with 52% of the vote in a constituency that has shifted considerably over the past decade. AZ-02 encompasses rural and suburban areas south of Phoenix, including Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties, alongside portions of Pima County. The district's composition and voter preferences will be material to the outcome, as will candidate recruitment and campaign dynamics that typically crystallise in the 18 months preceding a midterm election.
Historical precedent suggests AZ-02 remains competitive but leans Republican. The district has voted Republican in recent cycles, though Arizona statewide has trended Democratic since 2018. Comparable districts in the Southwest with similar demographic profiles and recent voting patterns provide a baseline for assessing partisan advantage. The 2024 presidential election results in AZ-02 will offer the most recent data point for understanding the district's current lean before candidate announcements reshape the race.
Key catalysts include formal candidate declarations from both parties, expected throughout 2025 and into early 2026, alongside any redistricting changes if Arizona's independent commission revisits district boundaries. National political conditions, fundraising patterns, and any shifts in voter registration will influence trader positioning as the election approaches. The Republican primary, should multiple candidates emerge, could determine the eventual nominee's profile and viability in a potentially competitive general election.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "AZ-02 House Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$537 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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