Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The 2026 Agrigento, Italy mayoral runoff election is currently scheduled to be held on June 7 and 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Agrigento as a result of this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Agrigento.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Michele Sodano | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Person B | — | |
| Gerlando Alonge | 56% YES | 44% NO |
| Person A | — | |
| Person C | — | |
| Person D | — | |
| Person F | — | |
Agrigento, Sicily's principal city, will hold mayoral elections on 7–8 June 2026, with a potential runoff if no candidate secures an outright majority in the first round. The election determines who leads the municipality of roughly 59,000 residents. Current order book activity on Polymarket prices the outcome at 46% implied probability for the specified winner, reflecting genuine uncertainty about which candidate will emerge victorious from what appears to be a competitive field.
Italian municipal elections typically feature fragmented candidacies across centre-left, centre-right, and Five Star Movement-aligned slates. Agrigento's political composition—historically influenced by both Sicilian regional dynamics and national party structures—suggests the race may depend on coalition-building and turnout patterns rather than a single dominant frontrunner. Comparable Sicilian municipal contests have shown volatility in final results when multiple candidates poll within narrow margins, making early polling unreliable predictors of runoff outcomes if required.
Traders should monitor candidate declarations and coalition announcements as the election approaches, particularly any withdrawals or endorsements that could consolidate support before voting. The two-day voting window and potential runoff requirement mean final results may not crystallise until early June 2026. The market's April 2027 resolution deadline provides substantial buffer for official certification, though Italian municipal election results are typically confirmed within weeks of polling.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Agrigento Mayoral Election Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram political event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$5 in lifetime turnover and $635 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for politics contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 8 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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