Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Abraham Enriquez | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Donald May | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Tom Sell | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Matthew Smith | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Ryan Zink | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Candidate A | — | |
| Candidate I | — | |
| Candidate J | — | |
Texas's 19th congressional district will hold a Republican primary on 3 March 2026 to select the party's nominee for the U.S. House seat in that year's midterm elections. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 2% probability for this market resolving YES, reflecting either a heavily favoured incumbent or an expectation that the Republican nomination process will face significant disruption. The settlement window extends to 26 May 2026, providing a buffer beyond the primary date to capture any late nomination announcements or procedural delays.
Historical precedent suggests Republican primary markets in safely held districts typically trade at higher probabilities for the incumbent or frontrunner, with 2% implying either an exceptionally crowded field or genuine uncertainty about the eventual nominee. TX-19 has been represented by Republican Jodey Arrington since 2015, though redistricting and demographic shifts have altered the seat's composition. Comparable open-seat or contested primary markets have shown similar low probabilities only when multiple credible candidates emerged or when the district's political lean was genuinely competitive.
Traders should monitor candidate announcements through late 2025 and early 2026, particularly any indication of whether Arrington seeks re-election or retires. The Texas primary filing deadline typically falls in December 2025, creating a key catalyst for clarifying the field. Any unexpected departures, health issues, or scandal involving the presumed frontrunner could rapidly shift probabilities. The Republican National Committee's official communications will serve as the resolution source, making their candidate endorsements and primary guidance material to watch.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "TX-19 Republican Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$72K in lifetime turnover and $48K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $118 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 26 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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