Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina. If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Lindsey Graham | 88% YES | 13% NO |
| Paul Dans | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Mark Lynch | 12% YES | 88% NO |
| Thomas Murphy | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Other | — | |
| Player A | — | |
| Player B | — | |
| Player C | — | |
The 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate primary will determine the party's nominee for the seat currently held by Tim Scott. The race remains in its nascent stages, with candidate declarations and campaign infrastructure still developing. The current order book on Polymarket prices a Republican primary occurring at 88% probability, reflecting the baseline expectation that the party machinery will proceed with a contested nomination process rather than an uncontested coronation or party collapse.
South Carolina's Republican primary electorate has historically favoured establishment-aligned candidates with strong organisational backing, though the state has shown responsiveness to populist messaging when candidates effectively mobilise grassroots support. The 2024 presidential primary demonstrated the state's capacity to deliver decisive results, with voters consolidating behind a frontrunner relatively early. The 88% probability reflects confidence in procedural normalcy; the 12% tail risk captures scenarios including unexpected incumbent retirement complications, party rule changes, or extraordinary political disruption.
Traders should monitor candidate announcement timelines, particularly any declarations from within the state's Republican establishment or from national figures seeking the nomination. The Federal Election Commission filing deadlines and South Carolina Republican Party rule clarifications will shape the primary's structure. Recent reporting on Scott's positioning and any signals regarding potential challengers will influence market expectations. The settlement window extends to June 2026, providing substantial time for primary dynamics to crystallise, though early positioning by candidates and donors typically accelerates through 2025.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "South Carolina Republican Senate Primary Winner" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$138K in lifetime turnover and $57K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 8 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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