Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The California primary is currently scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve "Yes" if the listed candidate advances from the primary to contest the seat for California's 4th congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If no nominees are announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including https://www.sos.ca.gov/. Any replacement of the nominees before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Sharon Brown | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| Mandy Ghusar | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Laurie MacKenzie | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| John Wesley Tyler | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Mike Thompson | 98% YES | 2% NO |
| Heath Fulkerson | 10% YES | 91% NO |
| Eric Jones | 90% YES | 10% NO |
| Trevor Merrell | 7% YES | 93% NO |
California's 4th congressional district will hold its primary election on 2 June 2026, with the winner advancing to the general election in November. The current order book on Polymarket prices the listed candidate at 2% implied probability, reflecting substantial doubt about their viability in the race. This pricing emerges from traders assessing both the candidate's current standing and the competitive dynamics within the district's Republican primary field.
California's 4th district, which encompasses parts of the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada regions, has voted consistently Republican in recent cycles. Historical primary performance in safe Republican seats typically sees frontrunners emerge early with substantial fundraising and endorsement advantages. The 2% probability suggests the market views this candidate as a significant underdog relative to better-positioned rivals, though California's top-two primary system means multiple candidates advance to the general ballot. Comparable races in similarly safe Republican districts have occasionally produced surprise winners when frontrunners fracture the vote, though such outcomes remain statistically uncommon.
Traders should monitor candidate filing deadlines, which typically occur in the months preceding the primary, alongside any major endorsements or fundraising announcements that could shift momentum. Campaign finance disclosures will provide concrete data on resource disparities between candidates. Changes to the candidate field—withdrawals or late entries—could materially alter vote distribution. The resolution window extends to 3 November 2026, allowing time for any post-primary developments or candidate replacements before the general election.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "CA-04 Primary Winners" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$29K in lifetime turnover and $32K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $583 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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