Trade: 2026 Midterms: House Turnout
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The US House of Representatives midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the 2026 US House of Representatives midterm elections. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $17K
- Total Volume
- $7K
- 24h Volume
- —
- Open Interest
- $2K
Market outcomes
| <85m | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| 100-105m | 17% YES | 83% NO |
| 105-110m | 5% YES | 95% NO |
| Other | — | |
| 90-95m | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 95-100m | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 110-115m | 11% YES | 90% NO |
| 115-120m | 16% YES | 85% NO |
Market context
The 2026 US House midterm elections will determine voting patterns across all 435 House districts on 3 November 2026. This market settles on the total votes cast for House candidates nationwide, excluding votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner. The current 4% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects substantial uncertainty around turnout levels, with traders pricing in expectations significantly below historical midterm participation rates.
Midterm turnout has varied considerably in recent cycles. The 2022 midterms saw approximately 113 million votes cast for House candidates, representing roughly 47% of the voting-eligible population—a notably high figure for a midterm election. The 2018 midterms drew 115 million votes with similar participation rates, whilst 2014 saw only 83 million votes with 36% turnout. The 2010 midterms recorded 87 million votes. These historical ranges establish the baseline against which current market pricing should be evaluated; the 4% probability suggests traders believe turnout will fall materially below recent precedent.
Key variables shaping turnout expectations include economic conditions heading into autumn 2026, the political environment surrounding the sitting administration, and whether any major legislative or geopolitical events drive voter mobilisation. Demographic shifts and changes to voter registration laws across states will also influence participation. The Federal Election Commission typically releases preliminary turnout data within weeks of the election, providing the settlement reference point. Traders should monitor polling trends and voter registration figures throughout 2025 and into 2026, as these will signal whether participation is tracking towards higher or lower historical benchmarks.
Wikipedia Context
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2026 United States electionsThe 2026 United States elections are scheduled to be held, in large part, on November 3, 2026. In these midterm elections, scheduled to occur during Republican president Donald Trump's nonconsecutive second term, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate will be contested to determine the 120th United State
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2022 United States electionsElections were held in the United States on November 8, 2022. In this midterm elections, which occurred during incumbent Democratic president Joe Biden's term, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate were contested to determine the 118th United States Congress. Thirty-nine state and territorial U.S. guber
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2018 United States electionsElections were held in the United States on November 6, 2018. In this midterm elections, which occurred during incumbent Republican president Donald Trump's nonconsecutive first term, all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the U.S. Senate were contested to determine the 116th United States Congress. Although the Republi
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2006 United States electionsElections were held in the United States on November 7, 2006, in the middle of Republican President George W. Bush's second term against the backdrop of the war on terror. In a political revolution that ended more than a decade of Republican rule, the Democratic Party was swept into majorities of both chambers of Congress, governorships, and state legislatur
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "2026 Midterms: House Turnout" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$7K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for elections contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 November 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "2026 Midterms: House Turnout"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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