Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 1) The Yashar party ("Yashar! With Eisenkot") or the Together Party announce that the Yashar party will merge with, or contest the 2026 Israeli legislative election on a joint candidate list with, the Together party. 2) Gadi Eisenkot or the Together party announce that Gadi Eisenkot will run on the Together party’s candidate list for the 2026 Israeli legislative election. Only definitive announcements will qualify. Suggestions, negotiations, offers, invitations, or other non-definitive statements will not count.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30? | 19% YES | 82% NO |
Gadi Eisenkot, the former Israeli Chief of Staff, currently leads the Yashar party and has positioned himself as a centrist alternative to both Netanyahu's right-wing coalition and the centre-left opposition. The question is whether Eisenkot will formally align with Yair Lapid's Together party—either through a merger, joint electoral list, or by running on Together's slate—before the end of June 2026. This would represent a significant consolidation of Israel's fractured centre, potentially reshaping the political landscape ahead of the next legislative election.
Israeli coalition negotiations and party mergers typically occur in compressed timeframes, often in the months immediately preceding elections. Comparable cases include the 2021 merger discussions between Blue and White and other centrist parties, which ultimately fragmented rather than consolidated. Eisenkot's independent positioning has been central to his political brand; any formal alliance would require him to cede autonomy or secure meaningful guarantees about his electoral placement and ministerial prospects. The 21% implied probability reflects substantial scepticism about such a merger occurring, suggesting traders view Eisenkot's incentives as favouring continued independence.
Key catalysts include any formal announcement from either party leadership, scheduled coalition-building meetings, and the timeline of the 2026 election itself. Israeli political negotiations intensify significantly in the six months preceding elections. Traders should monitor statements from Lapid and Eisenkot regarding electoral strategy, as well as reporting from Israeli political correspondents on backroom discussions. The settlement window extends through June 2026, capturing the critical pre-election negotiation period when such alignments would most likely materialise or definitively fail.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Eisenkot join the Bennett-Lapid alliance by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for yair lapid contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 19%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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