Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Friedrich Merz ceases to be the Chancellor of Germany for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Friedrich Merz's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be the government of Germany, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | 14% YES | 87% NO |
Friedrich Merz became Chancellor of Germany in February 2025, leading a CDU-led coalition government following the collapse of the previous SPD-Green-FDP administration. The market assesses the probability that Merz will be removed from or resign from this position before the end of 2026, with the current order book on Polymarket implying a 14% chance of this occurring within the settlement window.
German chancellors have historically served lengthy tenures when their coalitions remain stable. Helmut Kohl served 16 years, Angela Merkel 16 years, and Gerhard Schröder nine years. However, coalition instability has occasionally forced earlier departures: Willy Brandt resigned in 1974 over a spy scandal, and the SPD-Green-FDP coalition fractured in late 2024 after just three years. Merz's CDU-led coalition faces structural pressures including the rise of the AfD, economic headwinds, and potential tensions within a three-party arrangement, though the coalition agreement typically provides mechanisms for managing disagreements before triggering leadership changes.
Key catalysts for early departure include significant coalition breakdown, major policy defeats in parliament, or personal scandals affecting Merz's political viability. The 2025 budget negotiations and any snap elections called before the scheduled 2029 federal election would be critical junctures. Recent reporting from Deutsche Welle and Reuters indicates the coalition is navigating fiscal constraints and migration policy disputes, though no imminent collapse signals have emerged. The market's 14% probability reflects baseline expectations of coalition durability whilst acknowledging the elevated fragmentation in contemporary German politics.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$154K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for world contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 6 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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