Resolution criteria on PolyGram: A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Megaquake by June 30? | 14% YES | 87% NO |
An earthquake measuring 8.0 or greater on the Richter scale anywhere on Earth between now and 30 June 2026 would resolve this market to Yes. The USGS Earthquake Hazards Program serves as the authoritative resolution source. The 18-month window encompasses a relatively short timeframe for capturing a megaquake event, which influences how traders are currently pricing the order book at 14% implied probability.
Megaquakes occur irregularly but with measurable historical frequency. Between 2004 and 2011, three magnitude 8.0+ earthquakes struck: the 2004 Indian Ocean event (9.1), the 2010 Chile earthquake (8.8), and the 2011 Tōhoku earthquake (9.1). The preceding decade saw none. Long-term seismic data suggests roughly one magnitude 8.0+ event every five to ten years globally, though clustering can occur. This historical baseline—approximately 1-in-5 to 1-in-10 annual odds—provides context for evaluating whether 14% over an 18-month period represents value.
Traders monitoring this market should track seismic activity reports from the USGS and regional geological surveys, particularly in high-risk zones including the Pacific Ring of Fire, subduction zones near Japan and Indonesia, and the Cascadia and San Andreas fault systems. Increased foreshock activity or published warnings from seismological institutions could shift sentiment, though earthquake prediction remains scientifically limited. The market's resolution depends entirely on USGS magnitude determinations, which occasionally undergo revision after initial reporting, creating potential settlement delays.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Megaquake by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$65K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 14%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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