Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 13°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 14°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 15°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 16°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 17°C | 2% YES | 98% NO |
| 18°C | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| 19°C | 49% YES | 52% NO |
| 20°C | 21% YES | 79% NO |
On 4 June 2026, Tokyo's lowest temperature will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and categorised into a range. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 1% probability for the YES outcome, suggesting traders assess an extremely low likelihood of the specified temperature range occurring on that date. Settlement depends on historical weather data from Wunderground, making the resolution deterministic once the date passes.
Tokyo's June climate typically sees daily lows between 18–22°C, with occasional dips to 15–17°C during cooler spells. Historical June records at Haneda show minimum temperatures rarely fall below 14°C; such occurrences are exceptional rather than routine. The 1% implied probability reflects this seasonal pattern—traders are pricing in a scenario substantially colder than typical early-summer conditions in the region. Comparable years and long-term climate data from Japan Meteorological Agency records inform how traders calibrate tail-risk scenarios.
The primary catalyst remains the broader atmospheric circulation pattern developing across East Asia in late May and early June 2026. Cold air advection from the north or an unusual trough system could drive temperatures lower than seasonal norms, though current seasonal forecasts typically favour near-normal conditions for early June. Traders monitoring extended-range weather models from the Japan Meteorological Agency and international centres will track whether any anomalous patterns emerge as the settlement window approaches. The specificity of the temperature range and reliance on a single weather station create additional precision requirements for resolution.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Lowest temperature in Tokyo on June 4?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$6K in lifetime turnover and $19K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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