Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 12 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 24°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 25°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 26°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 27°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 28°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 29°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30°C | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 31°C | 4% YES | 96% NO |
On 12 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ben Gurion International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The market settles based on NOAA's official data from the airport's meteorological station, with resolution occurring after all hourly readings for that date have been finalised. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, giving traders access to real-time conditions as they develop.
Tel Aviv's May temperatures typically range between 24°C and 32°C, with historical data showing the airport frequently records highs in the upper twenties to low thirties. The current 0% implied probability on the order book suggests traders are pricing in either exceptionally cool conditions or uncertainty about which temperature band will ultimately resolve. Historical May patterns indicate that temperatures below 20°C or above 35°C are uncommon but not unprecedented during anomalous weather systems. Comparable May days at the airport provide a baseline: reviewing NOAA's archive for previous years shows most days cluster around 28–30°C, with outliers driven by Saharan heat waves or unusual Mediterranean systems.
Traders should monitor Mediterranean weather patterns and any forecasted heat waves in the weeks preceding the date. Spring conditions in the Levant can shift rapidly based on pressure systems moving from North Africa or the Atlantic. The airport's coastal location near sea-level moderates extremes compared to inland Tel Aviv, which typically runs 2–3°C warmer. Current order book depth will reflect how confident traders are in specific temperature bands as May approaches.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on May 12?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37K in lifetime turnover and $33K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is strong — order books support five-figure trades with single-cent slippage.
Last 24 hours alone saw $21K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 12 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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