Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 21°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 22°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 23°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 24°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 25°C | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 26°C | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| 27°C | 27% YES | 73% NO |
| 28°C | 20% YES | 81% NO |
Shanghai's highest temperature on 11 May 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and resolved against historical Weather Underground data. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands on Polymarket's order book, suggesting either minimal trading activity or a technical issue in price formation. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on the day itself, allowing only a narrow window for final trades once actual conditions become observable.
May represents late spring in Shanghai, with historical highs typically ranging between 28–32°C. Data from the past decade shows 11 May temperatures clustering around 29–30°C, though extremes have reached 34°C during unusually warm years. The current 0% probability across all bands is anomalous given Shanghai's consistent May weather patterns and suggests the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful price discovery.
Traders monitoring this market should track seasonal weather forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly from China Meteorological Administration updates and international models. El Niño or La Niña conditions active in early 2026 could shift spring temperatures materially. The narrow settlement window—ending at midday local time—means traders cannot wait for full-day observations; positions must reflect probabilistic forecasts rather than realised outcomes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Shanghai on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$71K in lifetime turnover and $22K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $71K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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