Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jun '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Incheon Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 17°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 18°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 19°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 21°C | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 22°C | 4% YES | 97% NO |
| 23°C | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| 24°C | 22% YES | 78% NO |
On 4 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will determine which range this market resolves to, with settlement based on historical data from Weather Underground. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability, indicating traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific outcome or insufficient liquidity across the available temperature bands.
Seoul's early June climate typically sees daily highs between 24–28°C, with occasional heat waves pushing into the low 30s. Historical precedent from prior years shows that temperatures exceeding 30°C on this date occur roughly once per decade, whilst readings below 20°C are rare but possible during unsettled weather patterns. The 0% probability across the board suggests the market may lack sufficient participation to form meaningful prices, or traders are awaiting clearer seasonal forecasts before committing capital.
Traders should monitor the Korea Meteorological Administration's extended forecasts released in late May, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. High-pressure systems moving across East Asia in early June will be the primary driver; any anomalous warming patterns or tropical moisture intrusion could shift expectations materially. Current atmospheric conditions and any El Niño or La Niña signals will influence whether June 2026 tracks toward historical norms or deviates significantly, making real-time meteorological updates critical for position management through the settlement window.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Seoul on June 4?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $75K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $9K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 4 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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