Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 12°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 13°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 14°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 15°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 16°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 17°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 18°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 19°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 11 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Mexico City's Benito Juárez International Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific date and location, with the market resolving once the final temperature data is published and verified. The current order book on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, indicating either minimal trading activity or a technical lag in probability aggregation at this early stage.
Mexico City's May temperatures typically range between 25°C and 32°C, with historical data showing the airport station records highs around 28–30°C during this period. The city's elevation of 2,250 metres moderates extreme heat compared to lower-altitude Mexican regions. May marks the transition into the rainy season, which can suppress afternoon temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, though dry conditions earlier in the month tend to produce higher readings. Comparable May days from recent years provide a baseline: the 2023 and 2024 May records show typical highs clustering in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius range.
Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly the timing of the rainy season onset and any anomalous atmospheric conditions. The North Atlantic hurricane season begins 1 June, but tropical systems occasionally influence Mexican weather patterns in late May. Long-range climate models and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional) will provide increasingly precise forecasts in the weeks before settlement, though May weather remains inherently variable.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$25K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $15K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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