Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 10 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 13°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 14°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 15°C | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| 16°C | 40% YES | 60% NO |
| 17°C | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 18°C | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 19°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 20°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 10 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Madrid-Barajas Airport will determine which temperature range resolves as correct. The market settles based on Wunderground's historical weather data for that specific station, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date. Currently, the order book shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating minimal trading activity or a technical issue with price formation.
Madrid's May temperatures typically range between 18°C and 28°C, though extremes occasionally exceed these bounds. Historical data from recent years shows considerable variability: May 2023 saw highs around 30°C whilst May 2024 remained cooler at approximately 24°C. The current zero probability across all outcomes suggests traders are either awaiting clearer atmospheric forecasts or the market has insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful pricing. Early May weather in central Spain is influenced by Atlantic systems and occasional warm continental air masses, making prediction inherently uncertain more than a year in advance.
Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any signals from European meteorological services regarding anomalous warming or cooling trends. The specific resolution source—Wunderground's historical data for the airport station—is publicly accessible and verifiable, eliminating ambiguity around settlement mechanics. As the date nears, traders will gain access to medium-range forecasts (10–14 days out) that provide substantially more reliable temperature predictions than current long-range climatological estimates.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Madrid on May 10?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$98K in lifetime turnover and $20K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $78K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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