Trade: Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 31?

Market context

On 31 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station will determine which temperature range resolves this market. The settlement uses historical weather data from Weather Underground, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on that date. Traders are currently pricing all outcomes at 0% implied probability across the order book, suggesting either minimal liquidity or a technical initialisation state rather than genuine market consensus on temperature ranges.

Chengdu's late May climate is well-documented. Historical data shows maximum temperatures typically range between 28–32°C during this period, with occasional excursions toward 33–35°C during heat waves. The city's subtropical monsoon climate means late spring temperatures are relatively stable year-on-year, making this a low-volatility weather event compared to seasonal extremes. The 0% probability across all outcomes on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's current thinness rather than any expectation of anomalous conditions.

Traders monitoring this contract should watch seasonal weather pattern forecasts released in May 2026, particularly any alerts from China's meteorological authorities regarding heat events or unusual atmospheric circulation. La Niña or El Niño conditions developing through early 2026 could influence late-spring temperatures across central China. The contract's resolution depends entirely on Weather Underground's historical data feed for Chengdu Shuangliu, making data availability and station continuity the primary operational dependencies rather than forecast uncertainty.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Chengdu on May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$52K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share

A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

CLOB

Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.

Liquidity

USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.

UMA optimistic oracle

The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.

Slippage

The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.

Conditional token

ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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