Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 11 May '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 28°C or below | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 29°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 30°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 31°C | 87% YES | 14% NO |
| 32°C | 5% YES | 96% NO |
| 33°C | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 34°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 35°C | 0% YES | 100% NO |
On 11 May 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport will fall within one of several defined ranges. The market settles based on data from Weather Underground's historical records for that specific station, with resolution occurring at 12:00 UTC on the settlement date. Current order book activity on Polymarket shows 0% implied probability, suggesting either minimal trading volume or that participants are awaiting further information before committing capital to temperature range positions.
Beijing's May climate typically produces warm but not extreme conditions. Historical data from May across the past decade shows daily highs ranging from 25°C to 32°C, with the city experiencing variable spring weather patterns influenced by shifting monsoon systems. The 0% probability reading reflects the substantial uncertainty inherent in weather prediction markets this far in advance—roughly eighteen months before the event—where traditional meteorological forecasting models lose meaningful skill beyond two weeks.
Traders should monitor seasonal weather pattern developments through winter and spring 2025–2026, particularly the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon onset and any anomalous warming or cooling signals. China's meteorological service (CMA) publishes seasonal outlooks that occasionally shift expectations for May conditions. Additionally, any significant climate oscillations—such as shifts in the North Atlantic Oscillation or Pacific patterns—could influence Beijing's temperature trajectory during this period, though such signals remain highly speculative at present.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Highest temperature in Beijing on May 11?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$90K in lifetime turnover and $580K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $78K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 11 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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