Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a confirmed case of Hantavirus in the territory of the United States of America reported between market creation and May 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Any laboratory-confirmed hantavirus infection identified within U.S. territory will qualify, regardless of where exposure or symptom onset occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information (e.g., the CDC); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | 82% YES | 18% NO |
Hantavirus detection in the United States represents a genuine public health surveillance outcome. The virus, primarily transmitted through contact with infected rodent droppings or urine, causes hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS), a severe respiratory illness with significant mortality rates. Cases occur sporadically across North America, typically linked to environmental exposure in rural or semi-rural settings. The current 44% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether at least one confirmed case will be identified and reported by mid-May 2026—a roughly 13-month window.
Historical context shapes the baseline expectation. The United States has documented confirmed hantavirus cases nearly every year since the virus was first identified in 1993, with annual case counts typically ranging from zero to a handful. Between 2015 and 2023, the CDC recorded confirmed cases in most years, though numbers remained low. This consistent but infrequent detection pattern underpins the moderate probability currently priced. The virus circulates in rodent populations across much of the country, making complete absence unlikely over a 13-month period, yet cases remain rare enough that non-occurrence remains plausible.
Traders should monitor CDC surveillance reports and official health department announcements, which represent the primary resolution pathway. Seasonal rodent activity typically peaks in autumn and winter months, potentially increasing exposure risk during those periods. Any cluster of respiratory illness cases or unusual rodent activity reports in endemic regions could signal heightened detection likelihood. The market's probability reflects genuine epidemiological uncertainty rather than extreme tail-risk pricing.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$211K in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for weather contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $109K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 82%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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