Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Venezuela at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Venezuela to qualify. Entering Venezuela's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Venezuela for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| June 30 | 8% YES | 93% NO |
| January 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| January 10 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| March 31 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The question concerns whether active-duty US military personnel will physically enter Venezuelan territory between now and end of June 2026. The resolution criteria exclude diplomatic visits, intelligence operations, and contractor activity, focusing specifically on boots-on-ground military operations. The 6% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects current market sentiment, formed by traders pricing the likelihood of such an incursion within the next eighteen months.
Historical precedent provides limited recent guidance. The last significant US military intervention in Venezuela occurred during the Cold War; more recent episodes have involved covert operations, sanctions regimes, and diplomatic pressure rather than overt troop deployments. The 2019-2020 period saw heightened tensions under the Trump administration, including naval exercises and rhetoric about military options, yet no actual ground incursion materialised. Regional military capacity remains asymmetrical—Venezuela's armed forces are substantially degraded—but geographic distance and political costs have historically constrained direct action.
Current catalysts centre on political instability within Venezuela. The disputed July 2024 presidential election and ongoing questions about regime legitimacy could theoretically trigger humanitarian intervention scenarios or support for opposition forces, though the incoming US administration's posture remains uncertain. Traders should monitor statements from the State Department and Pentagon regarding Venezuela policy, any escalation in regional proxy conflicts, or humanitarian crises that might justify intervention justifications. The timeframe extends through mid-2026, capturing potential shifts in both Venezuelan governance and US strategic priorities, though the 6% probability suggests markets currently assess such scenarios as unlikely.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "US forces enter Venezuela again by...?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.3M in lifetime turnover and $17K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for venezuela contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $5K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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