Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Up" if the Ethereum price at the end of the time range specified in the title is greater than or equal to the price at the beginning of that range. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Down". The resolution source for this market is information from Chainlink, specifically the ETH/USD data stream available at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Please note that this market is about the price according to Chainlink data stream ETH/USD, not according to other sources or spot markets.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET | 100% YES | 0% NO |
This market captures a five-minute window for Ethereum's price movement on 2 June 2026, settling against Chainlink's ETH/USD data feed rather than spot exchange prices. The 51% implied probability reflects near-parity between traders expecting upward and downward price action during this specific interval, with the order book currently pricing minimal directional conviction.
Five-minute price windows for major assets typically exhibit low autocorrelation; historical analysis of intraday Ethereum volatility suggests that sub-minute moves rarely persist across five-minute intervals without fresh catalyst input. During comparable low-volatility periods, markets of this type have resolved evenly split between up and down outcomes, with resolution often hinging on which direction the price touched first rather than sustained momentum. The current 51% YES probability aligns with this baseline expectation, indicating traders see no material edge in either direction at this settlement window.
Catalysts during early morning US trading hours remain sparse unless scheduled announcements or macroeconomic data releases occur. Ethereum's price action typically correlates with Bitcoin movement and broader risk sentiment; any overnight developments in traditional markets or cryptocurrency news would be the primary driver. Chainlink's data feed aggregates multiple sources with a slight lag, so traders should account for potential discrepancies between real-time spot prices and the settlement reference. The five-minute window's brevity means that flash volatility or order book imbalances could trigger resolution in either direction without requiring sustained directional pressure.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 100%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is sourced from https://data.chain.link/streams/eth-usd. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 2 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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