Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Stablecoin market cap shown on DefiLlama is equal to or greater than $3B on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.” The resolution source is DefiLlama’s United Stablecoin page, available at: https://defillama.com/stablecoin/united-stables A data point on the DefiLlama "Total circ" chart is considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published. If the DefiLlama page becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other credible and publicly verifiable sources.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026? | 17% YES | 83% NO |
United Stablecoin must reach a market capitalisation of $3 billion or more on DefiLlama at any point during 2026 for this market to resolve affirmatively. The current order book on Polymarket prices this outcome at 17% probability, reflecting substantial scepticism about whether the stablecoin can achieve a threefold increase from its present circulating supply within the specified timeframe.
Comparable stablecoin trajectories offer limited precedent for rapid scaling at this magnitude. USDC reached $1 billion in market cap roughly two years after launch and has since grown to over $24 billion, though its growth has plateaued in recent years. USDT, the market leader, took considerably longer to reach $3 billion and benefited from first-mover advantage and exchange integration. Newer entrants face entrenched liquidity networks and regulatory scrutiny that constrain adoption velocity. The 17% implied probability reflects these structural headwinds and the difficulty of displacing established stablecoin infrastructure.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding institutional partnerships, exchange listings, and regulatory clarity around stablecoin issuance, particularly in major jurisdictions. Integration with high-volume trading venues and payment rails represents the primary catalyst for rapid adoption. The DefiLlama resolution source requires the $3 billion threshold to be crossed on a single day's snapshot, meaning sustained growth matters less than achieving peak capitalisation before the December 2026 deadline. Any material news regarding United Stables' backing, reserve composition, or operational incidents will likely shift the order book materially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will United Stables hit $3B in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$14K in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for united stables contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 2 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 17%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 January 2027. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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