Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official UFC Welterweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Shavkat Rakhmonov | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Kamaru Usman | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Fighter A | — | |
| Fighter B | — | |
| Fighter D | — | |
| Fighter E | — | |
| Islam Makhachev | 70% YES | 30% NO |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 1% YES | 99% NO |
The UFC welterweight division will have crowned a champion by the end of 2026, and the current order book on Polymarket prices the probability of a specific individual holding that title at just 1%. This compressed probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which fighter will occupy the division's top spot across a two-year window, during which title defences, injuries, retirements, and unexpected challengers can dramatically reshape the landscape.
Historical precedent suggests that welterweight title reigns often span multiple years—Kamaru Usman held the belt for over three years, whilst Tyron Woodley's tenure lasted nearly two years. However, the division has also experienced rapid turnover; Jorge Masvidal's unexpected knockout of Ben Askren in 2019 and subsequent title shot demonstrated how quickly circumstances can shift. The current 1% probability likely reflects the market's assessment that no single fighter commands sufficient dominance or certainty to justify higher odds across such an extended timeframe. Current champion Leon Edwards faces ongoing competition from contenders including Belal Muhammad, Colby Covington, and rising challengers, with the division's trajectory dependent on injury recovery timelines and fight scheduling.
Traders should monitor UFC scheduling announcements, particularly title defence dates and interim title bouts that might indicate succession planning. Recent reports from MMA media outlets tracking fighter health and contractual status will signal whether the division consolidates around a dominant champion or remains volatile. The settlement date's specificity—31 December 2026 at 12:00 PM ET—means even a vacant title at that precise moment triggers resolution to "Other," adding a technical element beyond pure competitive uncertainty.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be UFC Welterweight champion at the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$37K in lifetime turnover and $4K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for ufc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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