Trade: Who will attend UFC Freedom 250?
Resolution criteria on PolyGram: The UFC Freedom 250 event is scheduled to occur on June 14, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual attends UFC Freedom 250. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the event is canceled or postponed beyond June 21, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". Attending the event is defined as being in physical attendance during any part of the event. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
- Liquidity
- $3K
- Total Volume
- $339
- 24h Volume
- $339
- Open Interest
- $339
Market outcomes
| Alicia Keys | 38% YES | 63% NO |
| Matthew McConaughey | 49% YES | 51% NO |
| Sabrina Carpenter | 18% YES | 82% NO |
| Adam Sandler | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Carmelo Anthony | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | 22% YES | 78% NO |
| Timothee Chalamet | 28% YES | 73% NO |
| Jon Stewart | 49% YES | 51% NO |
Market context
UFC Freedom 250 is scheduled for 14 June 2026, with the specific venue and fighter lineup yet to be formally announced. The event designation suggests a significant card, though the "Freedom" branding remains unconventional for UFC nomenclature. Current order book activity on Polymarket has established a 36% implied probability for attendance by the unnamed individual, reflecting substantial uncertainty about both event confirmation and the subject's participation.
Historical UFC attendance patterns show that high-profile fighters typically confirm their involvement 4–8 weeks before major events, with cancellations or withdrawals occurring in roughly 15–20% of cases due to injury, contractual disputes, or scheduling conflicts. Comparable markets for fighter attendance at major UFC events have generally resolved based on official UFC announcements and credible sports media reporting. The current 36% probability suggests traders are pricing in meaningful doubt, either regarding the event's stability or the individual's likelihood of appearing.
Key catalysts ahead include official UFC announcement of the Freedom 250 card, fighter roster confirmation, and any scheduling changes affecting the June 14 date. Traders should monitor UFC's official channels and major sports outlets for roster announcements, as these typically drive significant probability shifts. The settlement window closes 15 June 2026, allowing only a narrow window post-event for resolution verification. Any postponement beyond 21 June 2026 triggers automatic "No" resolution, creating a hard deadline that may influence late trading activity.
Wikipedia Context
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Attendance records at the Adelaide Oval
This article includes attendance records for various types over events at the Adelaide Oval, in Adelaide, South Australia.
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Attendance
Attendance is the concept of people, individually or as a group, appearing at a location for a previously scheduled event. Measuring attendance is a significant concern for many organizations, which can use such information to gauge the effectiveness of their efforts and to plan for future efforts.
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Attendance Allowance
Attendance Allowance is a non-contributory Social Security benefit paid to elderly disabled people in the United Kingdom. It was introduced in the National Insurance Act 1970. The benefit is intended to provide support for those who live independently but might otherwise need to go into residential care. It is paid by the Department for Work and Pensions. Th
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Attendance in Parliament Act 1514The Attendance in Parliament Act 1514 was an act of the Parliament of England that forbade any member of the House of Commons from departing before the end of a session without the Speaker's licence, on pain of forfeiting the wages which were then payable by his constituency.
How this market resolves
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
How to trade this market step by step
The mechanics for trading "Who will attend UFC Freedom 250?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
- Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
- Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
- Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
- Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
- Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
- Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.
How active is this market?
$339 in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ufc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $339 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Key terms
- YES / NO share
- A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- CLOB
- Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
- Liquidity
- USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
- UMA optimistic oracle
- The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
- Slippage
- The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
- Conditional token
- ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.
Frequently asked questions
How does this market resolve?
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
When does this market close?
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
How can I trade on "Who will attend UFC Freedom 250?"?
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
What happens when the market resolves?
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Risk and regulatory note
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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