Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Bernardo Sopaj" if Bernardo Sopaj is officially declared the winner of the fight against Timmy Cuamba at UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, scheduled for May 16, 2026. It will resolve to "Timmy Cuamba" if Timmy Cuamba is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond May 30, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba | 60% YES | 40% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| Sopaj to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cuamba to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 33% YES | 67% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Bernardo Sopaj faces Timmy Cuamba in a bantamweight bout at UFC Fight Night on 16 May 2026, with the market currently pricing Sopaj at 61% implied probability on Polymarket's order book. The settlement window closes shortly after the event concludes, with a 50-50 resolution applying only if the bout ends in a draw, no contest, or is postponed beyond 30 May. The current odds reflect moderate confidence in Sopaj as the favourite, though the spread suggests meaningful uncertainty amongst traders.
Sopaj's positioning at 61% sits within the typical range for a slight favourite in UFC bantamweight matchups, comparable to fighters with established records facing opponents of similar or marginally lower ranking. Historical patterns show that bantamweight bouts at Fight Night events—lower-tier cards than numbered UFC events—often feature tighter margins between competitors than headline fights, which can compress implied probabilities towards 55-60% ranges even when one fighter holds clear advantages. The current probability reflects this competitive tier rather than overwhelming dominance.
Traders should monitor official UFC weigh-in confirmations on 15 May, as missed weight or late fighter withdrawals would trigger a no-contest resolution. Any injury announcements or late replacement fighters would materially shift the order book. Recent UFC scheduling patterns show Fight Night events proceed as scheduled barring extraordinary circumstances, making postponement beyond 30 May unlikely. The resolution depends entirely on official UFC scorecards and judges' decisions, with no interim betting catalysts expected between now and settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC Fight Night: Bernardo Sopaj vs. Timmy Cuamba (Bantamweight, Main Card)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$166 in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for ufc contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $61 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 17 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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