Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team clinches a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Europa League per UEFA rules. Otherwise, the associated market will resolve to "No". If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to clinch a league phase spot in the 2026-27 Europa League (e.g. they cannot mathematically achieve a Europa League place, cannot qualify through play in European or cup competitions, etc.), the associated market will resolve to "No".
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| AC Milan | 48% YES | 52% NO |
| Atalanta | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Bologna | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Cagliari | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Como | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Cremonese | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fiorentina | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Genoa | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The 2025-26 Serie A season will determine which Italian clubs secure positions in the 2026-27 UEFA Europa League league phase. Under UEFA's reformed competition format, the number of Serie A sides qualifying for the Europa League depends on Italy's UEFA coefficient ranking and domestic cup outcomes. Historically, Serie A clubs have reliably filled multiple Europa League spots; Italy typically ranks fourth or fifth in UEFA's coefficient table, guaranteeing at least three league phase berths. The settlement window closes on 1 September 2026, capturing the final day of the domestic season and any subsequent European qualification playoffs.
The current 48% implied probability reflects uncertainty around which specific team will qualify rather than whether Italian clubs will populate the competition. Serie A's competitive depth means multiple clubs remain viable contenders through May 2026. The Coppa Italia winner also secures a Europa League spot if they finish outside the automatic qualification places, creating alternative pathways. Traders should monitor Serie A standings from January 2026 onwards, fixture congestion affecting mid-table clubs, and any changes to UEFA's coefficient calculations that might alter the number of Italian league phase spots available.
The Polymarket order book's current pricing suggests modest confidence in qualification, likely reflecting the specific team's present league position and remaining fixture difficulty rather than systemic barriers to Italian representation in the competition.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Serie A: Team to qualify for UEFA Europa League" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$3K in lifetime turnover and $305 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for uefa europa league contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $20 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 1 September 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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