Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the UAE officially announces or formally communicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement or formal communication refers to a statement by the United Arab Emirates government or an entity officially authorized to make such a decision that clearly indicates its decision to withdraw from the Gulf Cooperation Council, including but not limited to a notice of denunciation or equivalent official statement, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? | 10% YES | 90% NO |
The UAE's potential withdrawal from the Gulf Cooperation Council would represent a significant rupture in regional institutional architecture. The GCC, established in 1981, has served as the primary multilateral forum binding the six Gulf monarchies through defence, economic, and diplomatic coordination. The UAE has been a founding member for over four decades, and formal exit would signal a fundamental reorientation of its strategic posture within the Arabian Peninsula.
Historical precedent offers limited guidance; no GCC member has ever formally withdrawn, though the organisation has experienced severe internal friction. Qatar's 2017–2021 blockade by other members created de facto isolation without formal exit. More recently, the UAE has pursued independent foreign policy initiatives—including normalisation with Israel via the Abraham Accords in 2020 and deepening ties with India and China—that operate outside GCC frameworks. These moves reflect pragmatic divergence rather than institutional rupture, yet they demonstrate the UAE's willingness to act unilaterally when interests diverge from collective GCC positions.
Traders should monitor statements from UAE leadership regarding GCC reform discussions, scheduled summits (the GCC Supreme Council typically convenes annually), and any public disputes over collective decision-making or burden-sharing arrangements. Recent tensions over maritime boundaries and energy policy coordination have surfaced, though these remain manageable within existing structures. The current 10% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects the market's assessment that formal withdrawal remains a low-probability tail event, requiring either dramatic institutional failure or a decisive strategic shift in Abu Dhabi's calculations about the organisation's utility.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$9K in lifetime turnover and $13K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for uae contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $3 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 10%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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