Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Yes" if previously unreleased evidence definitively confirming that either Jeffrey Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell were Mossad operatives is made public by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market ‘operative’ includes any direct involvement in assisting or providing information to Mossad. Official confirmation from the Trump administration or the Israeli government will qualify as definitive evidence. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30? | 2% YES | 98% NO |
The market concerns whether evidence will emerge by June 2026 confirming that Jeffrey Epstein or Ghislaine Maxwell had direct operational ties to Israel's Mossad intelligence agency. Such confirmation would require either official acknowledgement from the Trump administration or Israeli government, or credible reporting establishing their involvement in assisting or providing information to Mossad. The current order book on Polymarket implies a 2% probability of this outcome, reflecting the market's assessment that such definitive evidence is unlikely to surface within the specified timeframe.
Historical precedent suggests intelligence agency connections involving prominent figures typically remain classified for decades or emerge through declassified documents rather than public confirmation. The Epstein case, despite extensive investigation and Maxwell's 2021 conviction on trafficking charges, has not produced credible evidence of Mossad involvement in mainstream reporting. Comparable cases of confirmed intelligence relationships—such as the Pollard espionage case or historical revelations about other operatives—generally required formal legal proceedings or official disclosures, not voluntary government statements.
Potential catalysts include Trump administration declassification initiatives, though no specific announcements regarding Epstein or Maxwell intelligence connections have materialised. The resolution depends on "credible reporting" consensus, a standard that typically requires corroboration from established news organisations rather than speculation or unverified claims. With eighteen months remaining until settlement, traders should monitor any formal investigations, declassification orders, or official statements from US or Israeli authorities, though the low implied probability reflects the substantial evidentiary barrier required for resolution to YES.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Epstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives by June 30?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$26K in lifetime turnover and $5K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for trump contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $120 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 3 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 2%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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