Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Luna Vujovic and Marie Mettraux in the ITF Women Kursumlijska Banja, originally scheduled for May 24, 2026 at 4:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Luna Vujovic' if Luna Vujovic advances against Marie Mettraux. This market will resolve to 'Marie Mettraux' if Marie Mettraux advances against Luna Vujovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Luna Vujovic vs Marie Mettraux | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Luna Vujovic, a Serbian ITF competitor, faces Marie Mettraux of Switzerland in the women's draw at ITF Kursumlijska Banja, scheduled for 24 May 2026. The match represents a lower-tier professional tennis event where both players typically compete for ranking points and prize money. The settlement window extends to 31 May, allowing seven days beyond the scheduled date for completion before the market resolves to a 50-50 split if unresolved.
The current 0% implied probability on Polymarket's order book reflects either minimal liquidity in this particular match or a consensus view that one outcome dominates. ITF Women's matches at this tier often see limited trading activity compared to WTA events, meaning the probability formation may reflect thin order books rather than substantive market conviction. Historical precedent suggests that lower-ranked ITF matches experience higher cancellation or rescheduling rates than major tour events, which would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.
Traders should monitor ITF tournament scheduling announcements and draw confirmations as the May date approaches. Weather conditions in Serbia during late May occasionally disrupt clay court schedules. Additionally, player withdrawal announcements—common at ITF level where competitors manage injury recovery and scheduling conflicts—would alter match probabilities materially. Confirmation of both players' participation in the tournament draw typically arrives within one to two weeks of the event date, providing a critical catalyst for market repricing.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Luna Vujovic vs Marie Mettraux" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$322 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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