Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Elyse Tse and Carla Guerrero Calvo in the ITF Women Ontinyent, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 10:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Elyse Tse' if Elyse Tse advances against Carla Guerrero Calvo. This market will resolve to 'Carla Guerrero Calvo' if Carla Guerrero Calvo advances against Elyse Tse. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Ontinyent: Elyse Tse vs Carla Guerrero Calvo | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Elyse Tse faces Carla Guerrero Calvo in the ITF Women's tournament at Ontinyent, scheduled for 2 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket prices Tse's advancement at 87%, reflecting confidence in her progression past the Spanish player. This probability has formed through trading activity across the platform's liquidity pools, where the YES side commands substantially higher backing than the NO side.
Tse, a Canadian player competing on the ITF circuit, typically operates in lower-tier professional tournaments where ranking volatility is pronounced. Guerrero Calvo, competing domestically in Spain, has limited recent exposure in international rankings databases. Historical ITF Women's matches at this level show advancement probabilities of 85–90% for players seeded higher or possessing superior recent form, though upsets occur in roughly 15–20% of such matchups. The 87% probability sits within this expected range, suggesting the market has incorporated standard form differentials without exceptional weighting toward either player.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through the ITF's official scheduling updates, as player absences would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Injury announcements or weather delays affecting the Ontinyent venue could alter match conditions. The settlement window closes 7 days post-scheduled date, creating a hard deadline for match completion; any postponement beyond this window without a determined winner defaults to equal odds regardless of play status.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Ontinyent: Elyse Tse vs Carla Guerrero Calvo" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$2K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $659 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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