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Tennis

Trade: ITF Ontinyent: Camila Rodero vs Cayetana Gay

Opened · Settles

Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Camila Rodero and Cayetana Gay in the ITF Women Ontinyent, originally scheduled for June 2, 2026 at 8:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Camila Rodero' if Camila Rodero advances against Cayetana Gay. This market will resolve to 'Cayetana Gay' if Cayetana Gay advances against Camila Rodero. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.

PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.

Liquidity
$1K
Total Volume
$5
24h Volume
$5
Open Interest
$5
Trade this market on PolyGram →

Market outcomes

ITF Ontinyent: Camila Rodero vs Cayetana Gay 36% YES64% NO
Completed Match 51% YES50% NO

Market context

Camila Rodero and Cayetana Gay are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Ontinyent on 2 June 2026. The match sits at 36% implied probability for Rodero on Polymarket's order book, reflecting a substantial favourite position for Gay. Settlement occurs on 9 June, allowing a seven-day window for completion; matches delayed beyond that threshold without a winner resolve to 50-50, whilst walkovers or retirements after play begins favour the advancing player.

Both players operate within Spain's domestic ITF circuit, where surface conditions and recent form carry outsized weight. Rodero and Gay have limited head-to-head history at professional level, making comparable matches the primary reference point. Players ranked similarly on the ITF ladder typically show win rates clustering around 45–55% depending on surface preference and recent tournament results. The current 36% probability suggests the market has identified Gay as the stronger player on available data, though ITF women's draws remain volatile and subject to late withdrawals or injury.

Traders should monitor official ITF tournament draws and any player injury announcements through early June. Venue surface—clay courts at Ontinyent favour baseline consistency—and recent match results from both players' May tournaments will clarify whether the current probability reflects genuine form divergence or incomplete information. Weather delays are possible in eastern Spain during early June; any postponement beyond 7 June triggers the 50-50 resolution clause, materially affecting positions held closer to settlement.

Resolution source

This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.

How to trade this market step by step

The mechanics for trading "ITF Ontinyent: Camila Rodero vs Cayetana Gay" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.

  1. Sign in on polygram.ink with your email — no full KYC under $1,500 lifetime trading volume.
  2. Deposit USDC on Polygon (lowest fees, ~$0.01 per transaction) or Ethereum. Funds credit after 12 confirmations.
  3. Pick a side. Buy YES if you believe the event will happen; buy NO if you think it won't. The current YES price reflects the market's collective probability.
  4. Size your position. If you stake 100 USDC at 50% YES, you'll receive shares that pay $200 if YES resolves true — a 100% gross return. If NO resolves, your shares are worth $0.
  5. Set risk controls (optional). Stop-loss, take-profit, and limit-order types all supported. Use the trade ticket's slippage box to cap your maximum entry price.
  6. Wait for resolution. When the event resolves on-chain via the UMA optimistic oracle, the winning side settles to 100¢ automatically and USDC hits your balance within seconds. Withdrawable to any wallet you control.

How active is this market?

$5 in lifetime turnover and $1K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.

Last 24 hours alone saw $5 in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.

The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.

Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.

Key terms

YES / NO share
A binary outcome token that pays $1.00 if the underlying claim resolves true (YES) or false (NO), and $0 otherwise. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
CLOB
Central limit order book. The matching engine that pairs YES buyers with NO buyers (effectively the same trade). Polymarket's CLOB on Polygon executes trades on-chain via the conditional-tokens framework.
Liquidity
USDC capital sitting in resting limit orders inside the order book. Deeper liquidity means smaller slippage on large trades and a tighter bid-ask spread.
UMA optimistic oracle
The on-chain dispute system that settles each Polymarket market. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution.
Slippage
The difference between the displayed mid-price and your fill price. Affects market orders most; limit orders avoid slippage but may take time to fill.
Conditional token
ERC-1155 outcome share issued by Gnosis Conditional Tokens on Polygon. The token type that resolves to $1.00 or $0.00 at settlement.

See the full prediction-market glossary →

Frequently asked questions

How does this market resolve?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.

When does this market close?

This prediction market is scheduled to close on 9 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.

How can I trade on "ITF Ontinyent: Camila Rodero vs Cayetana Gay"?

To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.

What happens when the market resolves?

When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.

Risk and regulatory note

Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.

Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.

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