Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Gaia Mais and Francesca Dell'edera in the ITF Women Monastir, originally scheduled for May 27, 2026 at 8:15AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Gaia Mais' if Gaia Mais advances against Francesca Dell'edera. This market will resolve to 'Francesca Dell'edera' if Francesca Dell'edera advances against Gaia Mais. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Monastir: Gaia Mais vs Francesca Dell'edera | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Gaia Mais and Francesca Dell'edera are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's tournament at Monastir on 27 May 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability for Mais, suggesting the market has priced in an expectation of her advancement. This extreme positioning warrants scrutiny, as such certainty in tennis markets typically emerges only when one player has withdrawn, when odds have compressed due to late-breaking information, or when liquidity is thin and the book reflects minimal trading activity rather than genuine consensus.
Historical ITF tournament data shows that matches at this level feature considerable volatility in outcomes, particularly when players are ranked within similar bands or when one competitor lacks recent match fitness. Dell'edera's recent form, injury status, and head-to-head record against Mais would normally anchor probability estimates well below 100%. The settlement window closes on 3 June 2026, allowing seven days for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or delay beyond that threshold triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Traders should monitor official ITF and tournament communications for withdrawal announcements, which would immediately justify the current probability. Court scheduling changes, weather forecasts for Monastir in late May, and any updates on player fitness or participation status in the preceding weeks represent key catalysts. The extreme probability suggests either material information has already circulated or the market lacks sufficient depth to reflect genuine uncertainty.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Monastir: Gaia Mais vs Francesca Dell'edera" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$31 in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 3 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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