Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Sara Dols and Margaux Maquet in the ITF Women Oliva, originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 at 5:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Sara Dols' if Sara Dols advances against Margaux Maquet. This market will resolve to 'Margaux Maquet' if Margaux Maquet advances against Sara Dols. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Oliva: Sara Dols vs Margaux Maquet | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Sara Dols and Margaux Maquet are scheduled to compete in the ITF Women's circuit event in Oliva on 29 May 2026. The match is set for 5:00 AM ET, part of the lower-tier professional tennis calendar where both players typically compete for ranking points and prize money. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 100% implied probability, indicating either extreme confidence in one outcome or minimal trading activity establishing a genuine two-sided market. At this stage, seven months before the scheduled date, such extreme pricing often reflects sparse liquidity rather than settled conviction.
ITF Women's matches at this level carry meaningful withdrawal and cancellation risk. Players frequently withdraw due to injury, illness, or scheduling conflicts with higher-ranked tournaments. Historical patterns show that matches scheduled this far in advance—particularly at lower professional tiers—experience fixture changes at rates between 5–15%, depending on the specific event's draw strength and competing tournament calendars. Both players' recent form and ranking trajectories will influence their commitment to this particular event as the date approaches.
Traders should monitor both players' injury status, entry lists for competing tournaments in late May, and any official updates from the ITF Oliva organisers regarding scheduling or draw changes. The settlement window closes 7 days after the scheduled date, meaning any significant delay beyond 5 June triggers a 50-50 resolution. Confirmation of the match actually taking place—rather than withdrawal by either player—represents the primary catalyst that would shift the current extreme pricing toward a more balanced market.
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This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Oliva: Sara Dols vs Margaux Maquet" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 5 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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