Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Yan Cheng Chen and Shintaro Imai in the ITF Men Luan, originally scheduled for May 29, 2026 at 11:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Yan Cheng Chen' if Yan Cheng Chen advances against Shintaro Imai. This market will resolve to 'Shintaro Imai' if Shintaro Imai advances against Yan Cheng Chen. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ITF Luan: Yan Cheng Chen vs Shintaro Imai | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Yan Cheng Chen and Shintaro Imai are scheduled to meet in the ITF Men's Luan tournament on 29 May 2026 at 11:00 PM ET. The market currently shows 100% implied probability for Chen's advancement, reflecting the order book on Polymarket where traders have priced in a decisive outcome. This extreme probability suggests either substantial confidence in Chen's form relative to Imai, or limited liquidity in the order book creating a wide bid-ask spread that hasn't yet attracted contrarian positions.
ITF Men's circuit matches at this level typically feature significant variance in outcomes, particularly when players are ranked outside the ATP top 200. Historical ITF Luan tournament data shows that seeding and recent form matter considerably, though upsets occur in roughly 25–35% of matches depending on the draw composition and player momentum. Without current ATP rankings or recent head-to-head records publicly available, the 100% probability warrants scrutiny; such extreme prices often reflect incomplete information rather than certainty.
Traders should monitor tournament draw confirmations and any late withdrawals through the ITF's official schedule updates prior to 29 May. Player injury announcements or last-minute ranking changes could shift the probability substantially. The settlement window closes 6 June 2026, allowing a seven-day buffer for match completion or rescheduling. Any delay beyond that threshold or match cancellation triggers a 50-50 resolution, creating tail-risk exposure for positions taken at current extremes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ITF Luan: Yan Cheng Chen vs Shintaro Imai" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$24K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.itftennis.com/en/tournament-calendar/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 6 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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