Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Alexei Popyrin and Casper Ruud in the Geneva Open, originally scheduled for May 21, 2026 at 8:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Alexei Popyrin' if Alexei Popyrin advances against Casper Ruud. This market will resolve to 'Casper Ruud' if Casper Ruud advances against Alexei Popyrin. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Current odds favour the YES side at 55%, making this a coinflip market with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most, backed by $191K of resting liquidity.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Match O/U 21.5 | 55% YES | 46% NO |
| Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 63% YES | 38% NO |
| Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Set 1 Winner | 33% YES | 68% NO |
| Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 44% YES | 56% NO |
| Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Match O/U 22.5 | 48% YES | 53% NO |
| Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Match O/U 23.5 | 41% YES | 59% NO |
| Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 35% YES | 66% NO |
Alexei Popyrin and Casper Ruud are scheduled to meet in the Geneva Open, with the market set on who actually advances rather than who merely appears in the draw. Polymarket’s order book is currently pricing Ruud at about 55% implied probability, so the market is only modestly leaning his way rather than treating him as a clear favourite. That kind of line usually reflects a relatively balanced matchup where surface fit, recent form, and any late fitness information can move the price quickly. On clay, Ruud’s profile is the more established one, but Popyrin has enough serve-and-first-strike ability to keep set-level outcomes live, which matters in a head-to-head market like this.
Recent ATP reporting shows Ruud arriving in Geneva in decent form, beating Raphael Collignon 7-6(2), 6-2 to reach the last eight, while the same event also saw Popyrin progress with a win over Taylor Fritz. That places both players in the same tournament context, which is important because any scheduling change, physical issue, or walkover elsewhere in the draw could alter when — or whether — this match is played. The settlement window also matters: if the match is delayed beyond seven days from the scheduled date without a winner, or if it is cancelled or ends without completion and no player advances, the market can revert to 50-50. Traders should therefore watch for official order-of-play updates, injury notes, and whether either player’s earlier matches create any dependency on recovery time or court allocation.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 28 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($191K of resting liquidity), a $500 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$175K in lifetime turnover and $191K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $175K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 28 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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