Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Mika Petkovic and Arthur Gea in the Hamburg European Open, Qualification, originally scheduled for May 16, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Mika Petkovic' if Mika Petkovic advances against Arthur Gea. This market will resolve to 'Arthur Gea' if Arthur Gea advances against Mika Petkovic. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 22.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea Match O/U 23.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Mika Petkovic and Arthur Gea are set for a Hamburg European Open qualifying match on clay, with the market window still live until 23 May if the fixture is delayed or left unresolved. Polymarket’s order book is currently pricing a 0% YES outcome, which means the displayed probability is being formed from the absence of buyers at the current levels rather than from any meaningful consensus on the match itself. In practical terms, that leaves the contract pinned at the floor until a participant lifts the offer.
Comparable ATP qualifying markets usually move quickly once a confirmed start time, court assignment and official line-up are published, then again if there is a late withdrawal, walkover or postponement. For context, the listed tennis data sources show Gea ahead in ranking terms, with the pair entered in Hamburg qualification and the match scheduled for 16 May; markets for lower-tier qualification ties often remain illiquid until close to play. Historical h2h data is not available here, so traders tend to lean more on rankings, recent form and surface fit than on direct matchup history.
The key catalysts are whether the match is actually played, whether either player is withdrawn, and whether the tournament schedule changes because of weather or court congestion. Live scoreboards and tournament listings have the match on the day’s slate, but those entries do not guarantee completion, especially in qualifying where delays can cascade. If the match starts, the main dependency becomes whether it is finished in full or ends via retirement, because that determines whether the market settles on a winner or falls back to the contract’s 50-50 resolution rules.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 23 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Disputed resolutions are rare — fewer than 0.5% of PolyGram markets in 2026 to date — and even rarer for events with clear, verifiable resolution sources.
Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. From there, withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Your slippage tolerance and the depth of resting limit orders determine the actual fill.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Hamburg European Open, Qualification: Mika Petkovic vs Arthur Gea" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$90K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $90K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 23 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: