Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Tommy Paul and Tomas Etcheverry in the Hamburg European Open, originally scheduled for May 20, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Tommy Paul' if Tommy Paul advances against Tomas Etcheverry. This market will resolve to 'Tomas Etcheverry' if Tomas Etcheverry advances against Tommy Paul. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Set 1 Winner | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Match O/U 22.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry Match O/U 23.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
Tommy Paul and Tomas Martin Etcheverry are scheduled to meet in the Hamburg European Open round of 16 on clay, with the market currently close to even at 50% YES. On Polymarket, that implied probability will be formed by the live order book rather than a fixed line, so the price can move quickly as traders weigh player strength, surface fit, and any pre-match information. The match is on clay, which matters because both players have credible records on the surface, and the event sits in the final stretch before Roland Garros, when some entrants manage workload carefully.
Recent comparable meetings suggest this is not a straightforward mismatch. Paul has been priced as a modest favourite in outside sportsbook markets, with some books posting him around -220, but Etcheverry’s clay-court pedigree helps explain why the crowd is not pushing the contract far above parity. The two also met on clay in Houston in 2026, giving traders a recent direct reference point for how their styles interact on a slower surface. For a market at 50%, the key is not outright ranking alone but whether the order book is reflecting genuine balance between Paul’s higher tour-level ceiling and Etcheverry’s more natural clay profile.
The main catalysts are whether the match is played as scheduled, any late injury or withdrawal news, and the Hamburg order of play, which can change if earlier matches run long. A postponed start or walkover would push settlement towards the market’s special rules, while a completed match will resolve on the actual winner. The clearest near-term signals tend to come from official tournament scheduling, team or tournament announcements, and any lineup changes reported by ATP coverage or major tennis outlets on match day.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 27 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($0 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.2M in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $650K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 27 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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