Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the tennis match between Ilya Ivashka and Hamish Stewart in the Bengaluru 3, originally scheduled for May 22, 2026 at 1:30AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Ilya Ivashka' if Ilya Ivashka advances against Hamish Stewart. This market will resolve to 'Hamish Stewart' if Hamish Stewart advances against Ilya Ivashka. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances.
Real-money prediction markets aggregate live odds from thousands of traders, surfacing a sharper probability than any single forecast. Odds will populate live once the order book fills with 7 days to resolution, well inside the window where catalysts move price most.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Completed Match | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart Match O/U 21.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart Set 1 Winner | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart Match O/U 22.5 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Ilya Ivashka is due to play Hamish Stewart in the Bengaluru Challenger 3 semi-finals on hard court, with live listings showing the match as scheduled for 22 May. The market is currently priced at 100% YES, so Polymarket’s order book is effectively treating an Ivashka advancement as a near-certainty and leaving almost no room for a Stewart win, a retirement in the other direction, or a late event disruption before the settlement window closes.
That reading is best compared with other Challenger-level matches where one side has already been heavily backed before play: once the market gets to this sort of level, the remaining price is usually driven less by pre-match strength and more by execution risk, score updates, and whether the match actually finishes. Ivashka’s recent results page shows a strong run of wins, including 6/7 last matches on one odds feed, which helps explain the one-sided pricing. Historical H2H-specific data are sparse here, so the live order book is doing most of the work in forming the implied probability.
For traders, the main catalysts are mundane but important: official tournament scheduling, whether the semi-final starts on time, and any retirement or walkover news from the ATP Challenger Bengaluru results page or live score feeds. The settlement terms matter as much as the tennis: if the match is not played, ends level, or is delayed beyond seven days without a winner, the market resolves 50-50. If it begins but cannot be completed, the player who advances by default is what matters, so any in-match withdrawal update is the key dependency.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
For this market, the resolution date is 29 May 2026. A UMA proposer can submit the outcome from that moment; the two-hour dispute window closes at , and assuming no counter-claim is staked, winning USDC clears to trader balances by approximately .
If a dispute is filed inside the two-hour window, the outcome escalates to UMA token-holder voting, which extends settlement by roughly 48 hours. Because this market resolves from a publicly verifiable feed (https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current), the probability of dispute is materially lower than the overall 0.5% PolyGram baseline — most disputes occur on markets with ambiguous wording or non-public resolution sources.
Withdrawal pace from your PolyGram balance is non-custodial and immediate — once payout clears, funds are yours to send to any Polygon wallet you control. Funds clear directly to your in-app USDC balance on Polygon. Withdrawals are non-custodial: send to any address you control, typical confirmation under 30 seconds, gas paid in USDC if you'd rather not hold MATIC.
Minimum order size on PolyGram is $1.00, with no maximum cap aside from available book depth. Orders route into Polymarket's on-chain CLOB on Polygon; the matching engine pairs YES buyers with NO buyers atomically — every executed trade is settled on-chain with no counterparty risk. For "Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart", order-book behaviour for this market reflects the underlying volatility of the outcome — patient limit orders typically fill closer to mid than market orders.
The trade ticket includes a slippage box (default 2%, configurable 0.1%-10%) that caps the worst-case entry price. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning YES (or NO) shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. With this market's current book depth ($0 of resting liquidity), a $50 order should fill with single-cent slippage at the displayed mid-price.
PolyGram charges 0% house edge — no spread mark-up, no rake on winnings, no withdrawal fees beyond network gas. The platform earns exclusively from optional features (copy-trade boosts, advanced order types, the yield vault on idle USDC); the trading surface itself is at-cost.
The mechanics for trading "Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$176K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 30% by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $176K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 29 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose. For "Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart", the considerations above apply directly — Trade size should reflect the binary nature of the payoff: even a 70% probability event resolves NO 30% of the time, so any single position can lose 100% of staked capital.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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