Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market refers to the doubles tennis match between Arends/Pel and Paul/Vocel in the Valencia, originally scheduled for May 15, 2026 at 8:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Arends/Pel' if the team of Arends/Pel advances against Paul/Vocel. This market will resolve to 'Paul/Vocel' if the team of Paul/Vocel advances against Arends/Pel. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one team advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the team who advances.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Paul/Vocel | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Completed Match | 50% YES | 51% NO |
| Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Paul/Vocel Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Paul/Vocel Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Paul/Vocel Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Paul/Vocel Match O/U 21.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Paul/Vocel Match O/U 22.5 | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Paul/Vocel Match O/U 23.5 | 50% YES | 51% NO |
A doubles match between Arends/Pel and Paul/Vocel is scheduled for the Valencia tournament on 15 May 2026. The market currently reflects a 50–50 split on Polymarket's order book, suggesting traders view both pairings as evenly matched. Settlement occurs on 22 May, allowing a seven-day window for the match to conclude; any cancellation, tie, or unresolved outcome beyond that period triggers a 50–50 resolution.
Doubles tennis markets at this level typically hinge on recent form, surface preference, and partnership chemistry. Arends and Pel's record as a unit, alongside Paul and Vocel's consistency on clay courts, will determine how the probability shifts as the event approaches. Historical precedent shows that Spanish clay tournaments favour established partnerships with prior tournament success; traders should monitor whether either pairing has competed together recently or if recent ATP or ITF results signal momentum. The current even split suggests the market lacks strong conviction data on either team's current ranking or recent wins.
Key catalysts include official tournament draws and any late withdrawals or injury announcements in the fortnight before play. Polymarket's order book will tighten once the draw is confirmed and traders can cross-reference current ATP doubles rankings and head-to-head records. Weather delays are possible in May; any postponement approaching the seven-day threshold could force resolution to 50–50 regardless of on-court performance. Traders should monitor Valencia's official schedule and ATP injury reports through mid-May.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "Valencia (Doubles): Arends/Pel vs Paul/Vocel" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$0 in lifetime turnover and $104 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tennis contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 22 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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