Resolution criteria on PolyGram: Bryan Johnson recently made public his relationship with co-founder Kate Tolo (https://x.com/bryan_johnson/status/1995953490930401334). This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bryan Johnson proposes to Kate Tolo by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it is definitively determined that Bryan Johnson and Kate Tolo have ended their romantic relationship within the stated timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The resolution of this market will be photo or video of the proposal, or official statements of Bryan Johnson, Kate Tolo, or their legal representatives, otherwise a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027? | 31% YES | 69% NO |
Bryan Johnson, the longevity entrepreneur and Braintree co-founder, publicly disclosed his relationship with Kate Tolo, his co-founder at Kernel, in June 2022. The market assesses the probability he will propose to her by the end of 2026, giving a roughly four-and-a-half-year window from the relationship's public announcement. Current order book activity on Polymarket prices this outcome at 31% YES, reflecting moderate scepticism about a formal engagement within the specified timeframe despite the couple's established professional and personal partnership.
Comparable cases suggest engagement timelines vary considerably amongst tech founders. Some high-profile tech couples have married within two to three years of public relationship disclosure, whilst others have maintained long-term partnerships without formalisation. Johnson's age (currently 57) and prior relationship history may inform trader assessments, though his documented focus on longevity and life optimisation could cut either direction regarding conventional milestones. The 31% implied probability sits between pure speculation and base-rate expectations for established couples in their mid-to-late stages.
Traders should monitor announcements regarding Johnson's professional ventures, particularly any major Kernel developments or health-related initiatives that might influence personal life decisions. Public statements from either Johnson or Tolo about relationship intentions, marriage philosophy, or family planning would constitute material information. Media coverage of their joint appearances and professional collaborations may also signal relationship trajectory shifts. The market settles on documentary evidence—photographs, video, or official statements—making verification straightforward upon resolution.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Will Bryan Johnson propose to his co-founder before 2027?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$8K in lifetime turnover and $871 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for 5 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 31%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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