Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on June 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control on will be used to resolve this market. Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 25% YES | 75% NO | |
| OpenAI | 7% YES | 94% NO |
| Z.ai | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| DeepSeek | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| Mistral | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Microsoft | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Amazon | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| ByteDance | 0% YES | 100% NO |
The Chatbot Arena Leaderboard ranks large language models by comparative performance through head-to-head evaluations, with the settlement contingent on which company's model holds the top position on 30 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 26% implied probability, suggesting the market assigns roughly three-to-one odds against the specified outcome occurring by the settlement window's close.
Historical precedent shows the leaderboard leadership has shifted considerably over recent cycles. OpenAI's models dominated through 2024, but Anthropic's Claude variants have periodically challenged for top positions depending on evaluation methodology and model versions released. Google's Gemini, Meta's Llama series, and other contenders have demonstrated capacity to rank competitively under specific conditions. The leaderboard's sensitivity to model updates and new releases means rankings can shift substantially within months, making the 18-month forecast window material to probability calibration.
Key catalysts include scheduled model releases from major developers, which typically occur on irregular timelines rather than fixed dates. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google, and other firms frequently announce capability improvements or new model versions that immediately affect leaderboard positioning. The Arena's evaluation methodology itself occasionally undergoes refinement, potentially altering how models rank relative to one another. Traders should monitor industry announcements and leaderboard updates throughout the settlement period, as a single major release in late spring 2026 could substantially alter the competitive landscape immediately before the June resolution date.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Which company has top AI model end of June? (Style Control On)" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$1.4M in lifetime turnover and $95K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 2% by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $1K in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 7 months — long enough that the order book is mature and price is well-anchored to fundamentals.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 30 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: