Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve based on Riku Dining Group’s market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading. As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on May 15 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before June 2026". Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| 90M–110M | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| 130M–150M | 3% YES | 97% NO |
| No IPO before June 2026 | 89% YES | 11% NO |
| <90M | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 110M–130M | 4% YES | 96% NO |
| 150M+ | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Riku Dining Group, a restaurant technology and operations platform, is scheduled to price its initial public offering on 15 May 2026, with first-day trading to follow. The market will settle based on the company's market capitalisation at the closing price on that debut trading day. Current order book activity on Polymarket implies just a 3% probability of the IPO occurring and reaching a specific market-cap threshold by the settlement window's end on 31 May 2026.
The low implied probability reflects the inherent uncertainty surrounding pre-IPO valuations and execution risk. Comparable recent restaurant-tech IPOs have shown wide variance in first-day closes relative to pricing; Toast's 2021 debut valued the company at roughly $20bn at open before trading dynamics shifted materially through the day. The probability also factors in execution risk—regulatory delays, market conditions, or company decisions could push the IPO beyond the May window entirely, triggering a "No IPO" resolution.
Traders should monitor Riku's SEC filings and any formal pricing announcements, typically released after market close on the pricing date. Broader market conditions affecting technology and consumer stocks will influence first-day trading momentum. The company's final prospectus, expected weeks before pricing, will detail share count and initial pricing range—critical inputs for calculating opening market capitalisation. Any material changes to the IPO timeline or postponement announcements would move the probability substantially.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Riku Dining Group IPO Closing Market Cap" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$10K in lifetime turnover and $8K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $13 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for around a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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