Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to “Yes” if Discord experiences any incident classified as Critical (red) by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Qualifying incidents may include outages and other issues that Discord classifies as Critical. Revisions to the impact classification of any such incident will be considered as long as those revisions are published within this market’s timeframe. However, revisions of a previously published incident impact classification of Critical (red) to another classification will not disqualify an incident from counting.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Critical Discord Incident by May 31? | 20% YES | 80% NO |
Discord, the communication platform with over 150 million monthly active users, could experience a critical incident—defined by the company as a red-level outage or service disruption—between now and the end of May 2026. The market currently reflects a 20% probability of such an event occurring within this timeframe, with the Polymarket order book pricing YES shares at approximately 0.20 and NO shares at 0.80, indicating modest conviction that Discord will maintain service stability through the settlement window.
Historical precedent suggests critical incidents at large-scale platforms occur with moderate frequency. Discord has experienced notable outages in previous years, including widespread connectivity issues in 2020 and 2022, though the company has generally maintained strong uptime. Comparable platforms like Slack and Microsoft Teams have each faced critical incidents within recent years, with major cloud infrastructure providers reporting critical events roughly once every 12–24 months. This historical baseline informs the current 20% probability, which prices in both Discord's operational maturity and the inherent risks of maintaining global infrastructure at scale.
Traders should monitor Discord's infrastructure announcements, scheduled maintenance windows, and any disclosed security vulnerabilities that could necessitate emergency patching. The company's reliance on third-party cloud providers—particularly for data centre operations—means external infrastructure failures could trigger qualifying incidents. Recent industry reports on cyber threats targeting communication platforms and the ongoing complexity of managing distributed systems across multiple regions represent material catalysts that could shift market pricing before the May 2026 deadline.
Critical discourse analysis (CDA) is an approach to the study of discourse that views language as a form of social practice. CDA combines critique of discourse with an explanation of how it figures in and contributes to the existing social reality, as a basis for action to change the social reality in various respects. Scholars working in the tradition of CD
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Critical Discord Incident by May 31?" are the same as any other PolyGram event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$15K in lifetime turnover and $2K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for tech contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $22 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
As of today, traders on Polymarket price this outcome at 20%. The number updates continuously as the order book clears. PolyGram mirrors the same live odds with locale-aware formatting and USDC settlement.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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