Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve according to the official UFC Lightweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Ilia Topuria | 76% YES | 24% NO |
| Justin Gaethje | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| Dan Hooker | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Mateusz Gamrot | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| Fighter A | — | |
| Fighter B | — | |
| Other | — | |
| Charles Oliveira | 11% YES | 89% NO |
The UFC Lightweight division will have an undisputed champion on 31 December 2026, or the belt will be vacant. The current champion, Islam Makhachev, has held the title since February 2023 and successfully defended it three times. The market's 76% implied probability reflects confidence that the division will maintain an active champion through the end of 2026, rather than entering a vacant period or experiencing an extended interim championship situation.
Historical precedent suggests lightweight title reigns typically last 18–36 months before a change occurs through either loss or retirement. Makhachev's reign currently sits at roughly 22 months, placing him within the window where title changes become more probable. The division has experienced relatively stable championship tenure in recent years compared to heavier weight classes, which supports the elevated probability of an occupied title by year-end. However, injuries, unexpected retirements, or extended gaps between title defences have occasionally created vacancies, introducing downside risk to the YES position.
Traders should monitor the UFC's official fight schedule announcements for Makhachev's next title defence and any challenger confirmations, typically disclosed 6–8 weeks before events. The timing of defences will determine whether sufficient fights occur before the settlement date. Unexpected injuries or UFC administrative decisions regarding interim titles would represent material catalysts. Current order book depth on Polymarket will reflect how traders are pricing these scheduling and injury risks against the baseline assumption of an active champion.
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Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if no one stakes a counter-claim the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token-holder voting. Payouts clear in USDC to the winning side.
The mechanics for trading "Who will be UFC Lightweight champion at the end of 2026?" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$22K in lifetime turnover and $3K of resting liquidity puts this market in the around the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
Last 24 hours alone saw $85 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for 4 months — the price has had time to stabilise as new information arrived.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a 2-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested the payout is final. Contested outcomes escalate to UMA token holders.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 31 December 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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