Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Matt Schnell" if Matt Schnell is officially declared the winner of the fight against Imanol Rodriguez at UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim, scheduled for June 6, 2026. It will resolve to "Imanol Rodriguez" if Imanol Rodriguez is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 20, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Schnell to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Rodriguez to win by KO/TKO? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | 50% YES | 50% NO |
Matt Schnell and Imanol Rodriguez are scheduled to compete in a flyweight bout on the main card of UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim on 6 June 2026. The market currently reflects a 50-50 split on Polymarket's order book, indicating substantial uncertainty amongst traders regarding the outcome. Settlement hinges on official UFC declaration of a winner; any alternative result—draw, technical draw, no contest, or cancellation beyond 20 June—triggers a 50-50 resolution.
Schnell, a veteran of the UFC's flyweight division since 2018, has compiled a mixed record with notable wins against established competitors but also several losses to ranked opponents. Rodriguez represents a less extensively documented profile in the UFC ecosystem. Historical flyweight matchups at Fight Night events have demonstrated considerable volatility, with upsets occurring at meaningful frequency. The current even-money pricing suggests the market lacks strong conviction regarding either fighter's technical advantages or form trajectory heading into the bout.
Traders should monitor official UFC injury reports and weigh-in confirmations in the days preceding 6 June, as last-minute fighter withdrawals or substitutions would alter settlement conditions. Any recent performance data, training camp reports, or commentary from established MMA analysts may shift the order book before the settlement window closes on 7 June. The fight's positioning on the main card—rather than preliminary slots—indicates UFC confidence in its competitive merit, though this carries limited predictive value for individual outcomes.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Imanol Rodriguez (Flyweight, Main Card)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$12K in lifetime turnover and $0 of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is thin — large orders may need to be split across the book or executed as limit orders.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 7 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
Explore more prediction market odds and trading opportunities on PolyGram: