Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This market will resolve to "Derrick Lewis" if Derrick Lewis is officially declared the winner of the fight against Josh Hokit at UFC Freedom 250: Topuria vs. Gaethje, scheduled for June 14, 2026. It will resolve to "Josh Hokit" if Josh Hokit is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond June 28, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| Fight to Go the Distance? | 43% YES | 57% NO |
| Fight won by KO/TKO? | 54% YES | 47% NO |
| Lewis to win by KO/TKO? | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Hokit to win by KO/TKO? | 61% YES | 39% NO |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | 51% YES | 49% NO |
| Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit | 26% YES | 74% NO |
| Fight won by submission? | 32% YES | 69% NO |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | 51% YES | 49% NO |
Derrick Lewis, the veteran heavyweight known for his knockout power, faces Josh Hokit in the main card of UFC Freedom 250 on 14 June 2026. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a near-even split at 51% implied probability for Lewis, suggesting traders view this as a competitive matchup with marginal edge to the favourite. The settlement window closes shortly after the event concludes, with a 50-50 resolution applying only if the bout ends in a draw, no contest, or is postponed beyond 28 June.
Lewis's recent record and age profile provide the primary historical lens for assessing this probability. At 37 years old, Lewis has experienced variable form in recent bouts, mixing knockout victories with decision losses against ranked opposition. Hokit's competitive level and recent performance trajectory will significantly influence whether the current odds adequately price Lewis's experience advantage or overweight his declining win rate. Comparable heavyweight matchups on Polymarket have typically reflected tighter probabilities when one fighter shows inconsistent recent results.
Traders should monitor official UFC announcements regarding fighter health, weight-cut complications, or last-minute withdrawals in the weeks preceding the event. Any shift in fighter rankings or recent performance updates from either competitor's camp could trigger order book repricing. The dependency on this being the scheduled main card bout means any card restructuring by the UFC would alter market conditions materially.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.ufc.com/events. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card)" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$4K in lifetime turnover and $15K of resting liquidity puts this market in the below the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is modest — expect a couple of cents of slippage on $1k+ trades.
Last 24 hours alone saw $98 in turnover, consistent with the market's lifetime daily-average pace.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.ufc.com/events. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 15 June 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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