Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between ACF Fiorentina and Genoa CFC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| ACF Fiorentina | 46% YES | 55% NO |
| Draw (ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC) | 30% YES | 71% NO |
| Genoa CFC | 25% YES | 76% NO |
Fiorentina will host Genoa at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on Sunday, 10 May 2026 in a Serie A fixture. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 50% implied probability, indicating traders view this as an even matchup with no clear favourite emerging. This balanced pricing suggests genuine uncertainty about the outcome, with both sides of the market finding willing counterparties at parity.
Historically, Fiorentina have held a significant advantage in head-to-head records against Genoa, winning roughly 40% of their encounters whilst Genoa have secured victory in approximately 25% of meetings. However, recent Serie A form matters considerably more than historical records in late-season fixtures. Fiorentina's position in the table and their trajectory heading into May will be critical; similarly, Genoa's desperation level—whether they are fighting relegation or playing for pride—shapes tactical approach and intensity. The 50% midpoint reflects genuine parity in how traders are weighting these competing factors.
Key catalysts include team news in the weeks preceding the match, particularly injury status of key players and any managerial changes. Fiorentina's European commitments earlier in the season may affect squad rotation and fatigue levels. Genoa's recent form and points tally relative to the relegation zone will influence their tactical setup. Weather conditions on the day and any late fixture rescheduling remain secondary variables. Traders should monitor official Serie A announcements and team news from late April onwards, as these will likely shift the current equilibrium.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "ACF Fiorentina vs. Genoa CFC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$65K in lifetime turnover and $661K of resting liquidity puts this market in the above the median by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $64K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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