Resolution criteria on PolyGram: This event is for the upcoming Serie A game, scheduled for Sunday, May 10, 2026 between US Cremonese and Pisa SC.
PolyGram is an on-chain prediction market where you trade YES or NO outcome shares with real USDC on Polygon. For this market, buy YES if you believe the event will happen, or NO if you think it won't. Your maximum loss is your stake — winning shares pay $1.00 each at resolution. Unlike sportsbooks, there is no house edge: prices are set by supply and demand from other traders and reflect the crowd's real-time probability.
Market outcomes
| US Cremonese | 90% YES | 11% NO |
| Draw (US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC) | 9% YES | 92% NO |
| Pisa SC | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Cremonese will host Pisa in Serie A on Sunday, 10 May 2026, with settlement determined by the match result. The current order book on Polymarket reflects a 55% implied probability for a YES outcome, suggesting roughly even odds between a Cremonese victory and either a draw or Pisa win combined. This probability has formed through active trading across the book's depth, with the spread between bid and ask prices narrowing as the event date approaches.
Historical context for mid-table Serie A fixtures shows that home advantage typically commands a 3–5 percentage point premium in win probability, though this varies considerably by squad strength and form trajectory. Cremonese's home record and Pisa's away performance in the 2025–26 season will be critical reference points; teams finishing in the lower half of the table often see volatile probabilities as injury news and managerial changes reshape expectations. The 55% reading suggests the market currently weights Cremonese's home status against any underlying quality gap between the sides.
Traders should monitor team news releases and official Serie A fixture confirmations through early May, particularly regarding squad availability and any late tactical shifts. Pisa's recent form heading into the final weeks of the season will be a key catalyst, as will any announcements affecting either side's motivation if league position is already settled. Weather conditions on match day and any late odds movements from major sportsbooks may also influence the order book in the final hours before settlement.
This market settles from the official outcome published at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the final result to the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon; the two-hour dispute window closes and payouts clear in USDC.
The mechanics for trading "US Cremonese vs. Pisa SC" are the same as any other PolyGram sporting event contract. Each YES share resolves to $1 if the event happens, or $0 if it doesn't. The current price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the market's probability estimate, set live by the order book.
$269K in lifetime turnover and $278K of resting liquidity puts this market in the top 10% by volume for sports contracts on PolyGram. Order-book depth is exceptional — among the deepest order books in the category.
Last 24 hours alone saw $262K in turnover, well above the lifetime daily-average for this market — a clear sign of news catalysing trader activity right now.
The market has been open for under a month — fresh enough that information asymmetry remains a real factor.
Higher-volume markets tend to have tighter spreads and faster price discovery — meaning the displayed YES/NO percentages are more likely to reflect the true crowd-implied probability rather than a single trader's directional view.
Resolution is sourced from https://www.legaseriea.it/. Settlement is executed by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon, with a 2-hour dispute window before payouts clear.
This prediction market is scheduled to close on 10 May 2026. After the resolving event occurs, settlement typically clears within 24 hours once the UMA optimistic oracle confirms the outcome. All payouts are in USDC on the Polygon network.
To trade on this prediction market, create a free PolyGram account at polygram.ink, deposit USDC via Polygon, and place a YES or NO order on the outcome you believe in. You can learn more on our how-it-works page. Your maximum loss is limited to your stake — there is no leverage or margin.
When the outcome is determined, winning YES shares pay out $1.00 each in USDC, while losing shares pay $0. Settlement is handled by the UMA optimistic oracle on Polygon — a proposer submits the result, a two-hour dispute window opens, and if uncontested, payouts are distributed automatically. You can withdraw your winnings to any Polygon wallet.
Prediction-market positions can lose 100% of staked capital. Outcomes are uncertain by definition — historical accuracy of crowd-implied probabilities is high in aggregate but not for any single market. PolyGram does not provide investment advice. Trade only with capital you can afford to lose.
Regulatory status varies by jurisdiction. Germany, the United States, and most EU countries treat Polymarket-style event contracts under one of three frameworks: financial derivative, gambling product, or unregulated novel asset. Consult local counsel before trading.
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